New Hampshire Democratic Primary Analysis

Author’s Note: I’m not going to write about the Iowa caucuses, because of the irregularities and the fact that the Associated Press has not announced their winner. However, based on current results, my prediction was a little off, starting with the fact that Buttigieg is projected to win more delegates than Sanders. Also, Biden at fifth place never happened- in Iowa-, so Klobuchar underperformed my expectations.

Hello everyone! This is my analysis of the New Hampshire primary, which happened this Tuesday. I will go through every candidate, from most over performing to under performing in the primary.

  1. Amy Klobuchar- Amy exceeded expectations and then exceeded some more. From a projected 12 percent to 20, Amy was definitely a winner. Multiple people at school have came up to me, asking who she is, and what she stands for If she becomes the nominee, New Hampshire may be the reason why. Furthermore, she cost Buttigieg the centrist vote, and Warren the college-educated women- who were expected to be a Warren bloc. Overall, great night for her. However winning in Nevada and South Carolina will be very hard for her, so she needs to gain support with minorities.
  2. Pete Buttigieg- After Iowa, many expected Pete to do well in New Hampshire. However, pulling to within two points of Sanders? Unthinkable until Tuesday night. If Amy hadn’t had a great night, Pete would have probably won. He needed to do good in NH, but has just as a tough road ahead of him as Klobuchar. Better than expected, but not by that much, is my take on Pete.
  3. Bernie Sanders- Bernie needed to win, and win he did. He would have probably liked a bigger lead, but the youth turnout wasn’t there for him. Probably the leader right now, and expect him to do relatively well in Nevada. In South Carolina? I’m not sure, but we’ll have a guide come the Nevada caucuses.
  4. Joe Biden- Joe said he was going to be really bad in Nh, but fifth? I’m not sure if the campaign even thought they could reach that low of a position. He didn’t really need to win NH, but this will hurt him a lot. Many Biden supporters are flocking to Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and now Klobuchar, and his main argument (electability!) doesn’t really work now. He needs to fight real hard to secure the nomination.
  5. Elizabeth Warren- Warren needed to poll in the top 3 to revive her campaign. Now, she’s taking a “unite the wings” approach, which hurt Booker, Harris, and Beto. She might look forward to winning in Nevada, which is a possibility. If she doesn’t do good in that state, she should drop out.

I’m sad that Yang will be leaving the campaign. He brought fresh, exciting ideas into the primary, and many people, at least in my school, liked him. I hope he runs for mayor of NYC in 2021. Losing Bennet and Patrick is also bad. None of them had ever really gotten traction, but I liked them both.

See you guys for the Nevada debate!

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