My Senate Map Ratings as of July 20, 2020.

Today I’ll be going over my Senate ratings for the 2020 elections. A “solid” status means that I believe that it is all but certain that the leading party will win (so around 9 in 10 odds or more), a “likely” is around 7 in 10 odds or more, a “leans” is a 6 in 10 odds and a “tilt” is a bit above 5 in 10 odds.

At the start of this map, we have 35 safe seats for the Democrats, 30 seats for the Republicans, and 35 seats up for grabs (class 2 seats plus 2 special elections). Pickup seats will be in bold. Also, Kansas doesn’t have because of the volatile Republican primary, which will happen on August 4. The victor of the primary will most likely change my ratings for it.

Solid Seats

I won’t go into to much detail for these because these seats won’t be a big factor in who gets the control of the Senate in 2021.

For the Democrats, we have:

Oregon- Jeff Merkley

Massachusetts- Ed Markey or Joe Kennedy III., depending on who wins the primary.

Rhode Island – Jack Reed

New Jersey – Cory Booker

Delaware – Chris Coons

New Mexico – Ben Ray Luján

Illinois – Dick Durban

Minnesota – Tina Smith- this would have been closer, along with Virginia, but in the very Democratic-favored atmosphere, I believe she is safe.

Virginia – Mark Warner

For the Republicans, we have:

  1. Arkansas – Tom Cotton

2. Idaho – Jim Risch

3. Nebraska – Ben Sasse

4. South Dakota – Mike Rounds

5. Oklahoma – Jim Inhofe

6. Tennessee – William F. Hagerty (TBD, but has National and State Republican support)

7. West Virginia – Shelley Moore Capito

8. Wyoming – Cynthia Lummis (TBD, but has National and State Republican support)

9. Louisiana – Bill Cassidy

10. Missisippi – Cindy Hyde Smith

Likely Seats

For the Democrats, we have:

1.Michigan – Gary Petersthis race will not be tighter than the presidential race, in which Michigan will be a key state.

2. New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen- she doesn’t have a credible opponent in which should be a good opportunity for the Republicnas, which shows how this year is shaping up to be a blue landslide (or, more appropriately, a tsunami).

3. Colorado – John Hickenlooper- this is a pickup for the Democrats. He is the strongest candidate possible aganist Cory Gardner, which shows how the Democrats did really well with recruitment this cycle (along with Steve Bullock, a fellow moderate-western governor turned failed presidential candidate).

For the Republicans, we have:

1. Alabama – Tommy Tuberville- While Trump preferred Tommy Tuberville over Jeff Sessions in the primary I actually think that Tuberville is weaker politically. Democrats will have a lot of opposition research to do, but I doubt that anything will be enough to counter Alabama’s strong partisan lean.

2. South Carolina – Lindsey Graham- Graham’s opponent, Jaime Harrison, is the strongest candidate that the Democrats could have wished for (like Colorado and Montana). However, South Carolina is a ruby-red state (unlike its neighbors, Georgia and North Carolina.)

3. Kentucky- Mitch McConnell- Amy McGrath has been shown to be vulnerable- she barely beat a relatively unknown opponent (Charles Booker) in the primary. The only thing keeping this election from being safe is 1) the amount of money that McGrath has and 2) the horrible approval ratings McConnell has.

Lean Seats

For the Democrats, we have:

1. ArizonaMark Kelly- Mark is an amazing candidate, and Martha McSally is not. He has campaigned really effectively, and polls show that, with him routinely beating McSally by a 10-point or more margin.

For the Republicans, we have:

  1. Alaska- Dan Sullivan- polls (or really, only the Election Twitter- funded PPP poll) have shown a close race, but Independent/Democrat Al Gross has to gain a lot of recognition with undecideds.
  2. Texas- John Cornyn- this race will be closer at the presidential level than at the Senate, simply because MJ Hejar isn’t a great candidate. It will probably tighten, but Cornyn seems safer than Trump in TX.
  3. Georgia Special- TBD- this race is really unpredictable. Between Doug Collins, Kelly Loeffler, Matt Lieberman, and Raphael Warnock, there are a lot of candidates in the jungle primary. I think the winner will be Doug Collins, and the Democrats are at risk of locking themselves out of the runoff come January.

Tilt Seats

For the Democrats, we have:

  1. North CarolinaCal Cunningham- Cal is a great candidate, and Thom Tillis is acting too right wing for the swing state that is NC. I think that this race will be one of the closest, but that Cal Cnningham will emerge as the victor (as polls say)

2. MontanaSteve Bullock- Bullock is the best candidate for the Democrats in MT. He’s done a good job with COVID-19, and he has raised a lot in a ver cheap state to advertise in. Also, he has Tester’s playbook already written out. The momentum is in favor of Bullock, and I don’t think that this will change. Chuck Schumer really got in luck with him as the candidate.

3. MaineSara Gideon- Susan Collins is the least liked senator. She needs to appeal to her base AND independents, which is virtually impossible now. I think this will be the closest race, but that Sara Gideon will prevail.

And finally, for the Republicans:

  1. Iowa- Joni ErnstErnst was viewed as the future of the Republican Party. Now, she’s in a very tight race against Theresa Greenfield. A Des Moines Register poll showed Greenfield winning, but Iowa is trending rapidly Republican. I think Ernst will win, but this rating will probably change next time.

2. Georgia- David PerdueJon Ossoff is a really good candidate, but I don’t think that he can beat Perdue at this moment. As the party coalesces around him after the primary, expect his donations to go up. David Perdue is a backbencher, and that won’t help him. shows my predictions, with a 51-49 map map in favor of the Democrats.

Want to create your own map? Here’s how!

Thanks for reading! What race interests you?

Join the Conversation

1 Comment

  1. Hola Sebi;

    muy buena informacion, se nota que hiciste una investigacion y evaluacion muy completa.

    Felicitaciones y espero tus proximos analisis.


Leave a comment

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: