SPECIAL: August 4th Primaries Analysis

Welcome to PoliticsToday’s first live analysis! I’ll be updating this post with analysis and results from the down-ballot primaries in: Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, Arizona, and Washington. Let the night begin!

9:00 EST- All KS polls have closed! I predict that, for the Senate race, Roger Marshall will win against Kris Kobach, a setback for the Democrats. I do think, however, that the margin will be close.

Also, come by tomorrow to see the results! As the remaining states are mainly vote-by mail, don’t expect that these states will have results. Signing off until tomorrow!

8:00 EST- MI polls have now closed. Here are my predictions for the main primaries in this battleground state:

  • MI 13- Rashida Tlalib will be able to fend off her challenger, Brenda Jones- albeit by a tight margain. Jones was the former congresswoman, and should be able to capture the black vote of the heavily minority-majority district.
  • MI 03- This is Rep. Justin Amash’s district- this is his last term. Hillary Sholten will be running against a crowded Republican field. I predict that Peter Meijer will win this primary.

Missouri polls have also closed! I think that:

  • The Medicaid expansion plan will pass.
  • MO-01- Cori Bush will narrowly unseat Lacy Clay in this heavily Democratic district. Bush is a progressive Justice Democrat, and polling has shown a tight race. Due to the pandemic (and this being a primary) the most engaged, progressive voters will be the ones to vote today.

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