The Home Stretch: My Presidential Map on Labor Day (57 Days Before The Election)

In politics, Labor Day is typically known as the start of the home stretch of the presidential campaign. Volunteering, donating, and campaigning go into full force.

It’s also a great benchmark to see how the race is going- after Labor Day, polls tend not to fluctuate as much as they do before it. Therefore, I thought it was a great opportunity to showcase my Presidential Forecast!

Some key notes from this map:

  1. Montana, Missouri, Utah, Indiana, Alaska and South Carolina are Likely Republican: While some of these states (Missouri and Indiana specifically) might be controversial, I think that these are likely odds fro Trump. Polling has shown that Indiana’s 5th Congressional District is relatively close, and this is a very reliable Republican suburb that shouldn’t be even remotely competitive. Furthermore, in Missouri, Nicole Galloway is running a very strong candidacy for governor, which might help Biden. Out of these five, I think that Montana and Alaska are the states that would first go blue, but this would be in the case of a national landslide for Biden.
  2. Texas as Tilt Republican: This one might be a surprise- Texas has rarely been anything but safe red since the Reagan years, but polling has shown a competitive race. Biden’s coalition of minorities and suburban voters in perfect for the realignment in Texas, where suburban voters almost gave the Democrats the Senate seat. Polls have shown Biden and Trump at a tie, and many people have noted that these polls have historically undercounted Hispanic and Latino support for Democrats- a great example for this is 2018. While I think that Trump still has a small advantage, Biden truly can win Texas.
  3. Florida as Lean Democrat: While Florida has been a toss-up for 20 years, I think that it is lean Democrat at this moment. Biden is leading with older voters, which is practically unheard of for Democrats. As Florida has the highest concentration of seniors, this coalition of them, the Caribbean-American communities, and the suburban vote can only spell good news for the Democrats.
  4. All the “key” states – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, are going Blue- Polls have shown that Biden has a double digit lead in Michigan, a high single-digit lead in Wisconsin, and a medium lead in Pennsylvania. This can only spell bad news for the Republicans. If they don’t start ads again (yes, they cancelled virtually all advertisements in Wisconsin and Michigan) they are in a horrible position come November.

So that’s my map! Any questions? Leave a comment and I’ll try to get back to you!

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4 Comments

  1. Hola Sebi; muy buen analisis. Tienes alguna opinion sobre como se afectarian los resultados con las trabas al voto por correo que estan poniendo los republicanos?. Saludos y feliz cumpleanos

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  2. Aceptando que Labor Day ha sido siempre un benchmark & Home Stretch….
    Hay algo que ha cambiado en mi opinión para continuar haciendo los análisis tradicionales…
    La sorprendente victoria de Trump en el 2016
    NADIE lo anticipo..
    y es porque estudiaban a Trump … y no a We The People….
    Pollsters Pundits Op Eds media in General fueron protagonistas de la mayor catástrofe de analisis politico de occidente en un siglo….
    Es la gente la que ha cambiado
    The Women Card …The Race card… its over….
    Te seguire comentando..

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    1. Hola Manuel,

      Clinton ganó el voto popular por dos puntos- que fue lo que las encuestas dijeron en la semana antes. La diferencia entre Trump y Clinton fue menor que el margen de error en Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, y Michigan. Si Clinton hubiera ganado estos tres estados, ella sería la presidenta. Es verdad que la gente no creía que Trump iba a ganar, pero las encuestas no estaban tan equivocadas. El problem de las encuestas es que subestimaron la cantidad de votantes blancos con un nivel educativo relativamente bajo quienes tuvieron una preferencia por Trump. Yo no creo que fue la mayor catástrofe de análisis politico en un siglo (por ejemplo Brexit), y tampoco creo que el “woman card” o el “race card” no exista. La población Afro-Americana no votó por Clinton como lo hizo por Obama, y ahora teniendo a Harris como compañera de fórmula de Biden puede atraer el voto de esta comunidad. El país nunca ha tenido una mujer como presidenta o vice presidenta. Yo creo que el tener a Harris como VP va a hacer que muchas mujeres piensen en darle su voto a los demócratas.

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  3. Great analysis.
    I believe the Cuban American vote in 2016 in Florida went for Trump, why do you believe it will go for Biden in 2020?

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