Welcome to PoliticsToday! This is a blog with a middle schooler’s thoughts on everything politics, from the Presidency to a City Council seat. We will express our thoughts on candidacies, policies and so much more, so look out! International readers, we will also have a foreign politics section as well, with focuses on the UN and other topics. A place for all politics, and everything relating to them- from a middle schooler from New York City.
Analyzing the Georgia Senate Race(s) Turnout
Today I will be analyzing the two Senate races in Georgia: the regular one between David Perdue and Jon Ossoff, and the special election between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock. I’m looking at one of the most important aspects as we head into the final week of this race: turnout levels.
So far, this runoff has shattered records for turnout- even though Election Day is still a week away. In fact, as of today, around 3 million people have voted, which is comparable to the presidential election levels. This is crucial for Democrats because runoffs tend to be low-turnout, which disproportionally affects minorities and young voters. The fact that the turnout levels are similar to the November election is astonishing and proves that something is working with both party’s turnout levels, and also points at the importance of the election.
Looking more specifically, Democrats should have a lot of hope because of the demographic numbers. So far, 31% of the electorate is Black. This is even higher than the November election, when around 27% was. A 4% increase in the African-American electorate equals around 3% more support for Democrats, knowing the correlations among these voters. In such a close race, 3% will make or break the Democrats’ hopes. Furthermore, a disproportional number of Hispanics, Asians, and young people (18 to 29) who have voted in this election did not vote in November, at 5.9%, 6.3% and a whopping 9.7%, respectively.
Turnout is crucial in this election where, let’s face it, not many voters will switch their minds. Thus, if I were Democrats, I would be cautiously optimistic. These numbers are good for them, and, unless a massive amount of Republicans vote next Tuesday (and by massive it would have to be basically at a higher amount than November), they will have a slight advantage.
The Home Stretch: My Presidential Map on Labor Day (57 Days Before The Election)
In politics, Labor Day is typically known as the start of the home stretch of the presidential campaign. Volunteering, donating, and campaigning go into full force.
It’s also a great benchmark to see how the race is going- after Labor Day, polls tend not to fluctuate as much as they do before it. Therefore, I thought it was a great opportunity to showcase my Presidential Forecast!
Some key notes from this map:
- Montana, Missouri, Utah, Indiana, Alaska and South Carolina are Likely Republican: While some of these states (Missouri and Indiana specifically) might be controversial, I think that these are likely odds fro Trump. Polling has shown that Indiana’s 5th Congressional District is relatively close, and this is a very reliable Republican suburb that shouldn’t be even remotely competitive. Furthermore, in Missouri, Nicole Galloway is running a very strong candidacy for governor, which might help Biden. Out of these five, I think that Montana and Alaska are the states that would first go blue, but this would be in the case of a national landslide for Biden.
- Texas as Tilt Republican: This one might be a surprise- Texas has rarely been anything but safe red since the Reagan years, but polling has shown a competitive race. Biden’s coalition of minorities and suburban voters in perfect for the realignment in Texas, where suburban voters almost gave the Democrats the Senate seat. Polls have shown Biden and Trump at a tie, and many people have noted that these polls have historically undercounted Hispanic and Latino support for Democrats- a great example for this is 2018. While I think that Trump still has a small advantage, Biden truly can win Texas.
- Florida as Lean Democrat: While Florida has been a toss-up for 20 years, I think that it is lean Democrat at this moment. Biden is leading with older voters, which is practically unheard of for Democrats. As Florida has the highest concentration of seniors, this coalition of them, the Caribbean-American communities, and the suburban vote can only spell good news for the Democrats.
- All the “key” states – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, are going Blue- Polls have shown that Biden has a double digit lead in Michigan, a high single-digit lead in Wisconsin, and a medium lead in Pennsylvania. This can only spell bad news for the Republicans. If they don’t start ads again (yes, they cancelled virtually all advertisements in Wisconsin and Michigan) they are in a horrible position come November.
So that’s my map! Any questions? Leave a comment and I’ll try to get back to you!
Adventures in Phonebanking
Last Friday, I did phonebanking for the Biden/Harris campaign in Wisconsin. Although there were a lot of “hangups”, or voters who hangup after you introduce yourself and why you are talking. (Generally, it’s something along the lines of, “Hi, is this [voter]? It’s [volunteer] with the [political group]. Are you supporting us?”), it went relatively smoothly thanks to the new “Autodialer” system. Basically, it calls a list of numbers by its own while you wait, and connects you once the person on the other line speaks. This results in calls being done much, much more quicker and being more efficient.
After approximately half of an hour of banking, I finally called an undecided voter. Early on, she mentioned that she was eighty-three years old, which I thought was very interesting. A teen talking to an eighty-three year old about politics seems like the punchline of a joke, but, I promise you, it was true.
We started to talk about how our generations had grown up in very different worlds, with mine having to battle all of the problems they and their children had caused. Somehow, this evolved into the polarization of Washington, and how they could not get anything done in terms of policy. I talked about the COVID relief bill, and how important it was to give more funding to the USPS during this pandemic. Later, we talked about the price of college and how Biden’s plan for higher education involved technical training as well as other education. We ended up talking for over half an hour, which is quite a lot of time in the phonebanking world.
This story is one of the many reasons I decided to phonebank- it allows real conversations with real people, whom I share very little with. I feel like I connected with that person, and that I made a difference- she ended up leaning towards supporting Democrats. It also shows that no matter the age gap, people tend to have the same critiques and thoughts on how to make our country better. I’m excited to continue to share more stories like this with you as the election draws nearer!
SPECIAL: August 4th Primaries Analysis
Welcome to PoliticsToday’s first live analysis! I’ll be updating this post with analysis and results from the down-ballot primaries in: Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, Arizona, and Washington. Let the night begin!
9:00 EST- All KS polls have closed! I predict that, for the Senate race, Roger Marshall will win against Kris Kobach, a setback for the Democrats. I do think, however, that the margin will be close.
Also, come by tomorrow to see the results! As the remaining states are mainly vote-by mail, don’t expect that these states will have results. Signing off until tomorrow!
8:00 EST- MI polls have now closed. Here are my predictions for the main primaries in this battleground state:
- MI 13- Rashida Tlalib will be able to fend off her challenger, Brenda Jones- albeit by a tight margain. Jones was the former congresswoman, and should be able to capture the black vote of the heavily minority-majority district.
- MI 03- This is Rep. Justin Amash’s district- this is his last term. Hillary Sholten will be running against a crowded Republican field. I predict that Peter Meijer will win this primary.
Missouri polls have also closed! I think that:
- The Medicaid expansion plan will pass.
- MO-01- Cori Bush will narrowly unseat Lacy Clay in this heavily Democratic district. Bush is a progressive Justice Democrat, and polling has shown a tight race. Due to the pandemic (and this being a primary) the most engaged, progressive voters will be the ones to vote today.
The Final Round: Whom will Biden choose for his VP Pick?
Whom will Joe Biden pick for his Vice Presidential nominee? I’ll go over whom I think he will choose, based on who’s least to most likely to get the nod of the candidates that have been talked about in the last month or so. These people have also been mentioned as being on the shortlist.
Least Likely- Tammy Duckworth.
While she is my favorite candidate, I don’t think that she will get the nomination. With her excellent credentials and backstory, she is inspiring and may be the candidate to best boost turnout in November. However, the need for a Black woman in this country is critical. While Duckworth is a woman of color, Democrats can’t take the Black woman base for granted.
Furthermore, she stated that it had been some weeks since she last spoke with Joe Biden, when asked about the VP vetting process. This late, it suggests that Duckworth will not get the nod.
Next, is Karen Bass. She has emerged as the real wildcard, with not a lot of people knowing who she is. She’s the chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus, being the representative of a Los Angeles district. She was also the Speaker of the California State Assembly. She is profoundly progressive, supporting Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and other progressive policies. Biden shouldn’t need to pander to the progressive wing, especially with the task-force recommendations. However, he does need to appeal to Kasich/Project Lincoln- type Republicans, which won’t like Bass. However, Chris Dodd, the former senator from Connecticut, is reportedly pushing for her nomination, according to an article by Politico.(@natashakorecki, @ccadelago, @MarcACaputo) . Again, she’s definitely the wildcard, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she gets the nomination.
Then, we have Susan Rice. She’s widely known for being Obama’s National Security Adviser and the US Ambassador for the United Nations. If Biden picks her, it signifies that he is focusing mainly on foreign policy, something that would be great. However, with the racial inequalities and COVID-19, it is very unlikely that foreign policy will take the driver’s seat. Furthermore, she’s not an experienced candidate, and it’s hard to see a Rice 2024 run. However, she has a very close relationship with many Washington officials, such as Obama, Susan Collins, and Biden himself.
Finally, the person who’s been the most likely pick for months now, is Kamala Harris. She’s been tested at the national level, is a smart politician, and represents the near future of the Democratic party. Even though she was tough on Biden during the early debates, she has shown that she will be a worthy pick. She’s well known and liked among Democratic voters, and has lately increased her progressive chops. Furthermore, Jim Clyburn, the man that saved the Biden campaign, said he supports Harris. She’s probably the candidate who checks the most boxes, which is why I think she’ll be the nominee.
Who do you think Biden will choose as his VP candidate?
My Senate Map Ratings as of July 20, 2020.
Today I’ll be going over my Senate ratings for the 2020 elections. A “solid” status means that I believe that it is all but certain that the leading party will win (so around 9 in 10 odds or more), a “likely” is around 7 in 10 odds or more, a “leans” is a 6 in 10 odds and a “tilt” is a bit above 5 in 10 odds.
At the start of this map, we have 35 safe seats for the Democrats, 30 seats for the Republicans, and 35 seats up for grabs (class 2 seats plus 2 special elections). Pickup seats will be in bold. Also, Kansas doesn’t have because of the volatile Republican primary, which will happen on August 4. The victor of the primary will most likely change my ratings for it.
I won’t go into to much detail for these because these seats won’t be a big factor in who gets the control of the Senate in 2021.
For the Democrats, we have:
Oregon- Jeff Merkley
Massachusetts- Ed Markey or Joe Kennedy III., depending on who wins the primary.
Rhode Island – Jack Reed
New Jersey – Cory Booker
Delaware – Chris Coons
New Mexico – Ben Ray Luján
Illinois – Dick Durban
Minnesota – Tina Smith- this would have been closer, along with Virginia, but in the very Democratic-favored atmosphere, I believe she is safe.
Virginia – Mark Warner
For the Republicans, we have:
- Arkansas – Tom Cotton
2. Idaho – Jim Risch
3. Nebraska – Ben Sasse
4. South Dakota – Mike Rounds
5. Oklahoma – Jim Inhofe
6. Tennessee – William F. Hagerty (TBD, but has National and State Republican support)
7. West Virginia – Shelley Moore Capito
8. Wyoming – Cynthia Lummis (TBD, but has National and State Republican support)
9. Louisiana – Bill Cassidy
10. Missisippi – Cindy Hyde Smith
For the Democrats, we have:
1.Michigan – Gary Peters– this race will not be tighter than the presidential race, in which Michigan will be a key state.
2. New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen- she doesn’t have a credible opponent in which should be a good opportunity for the Republicnas, which shows how this year is shaping up to be a blue landslide (or, more appropriately, a tsunami).
3. Colorado – John Hickenlooper- this is a pickup for the Democrats. He is the strongest candidate possible aganist Cory Gardner, which shows how the Democrats did really well with recruitment this cycle (along with Steve Bullock, a fellow moderate-western governor turned failed presidential candidate).
For the Republicans, we have:
1. Alabama – Tommy Tuberville- While Trump preferred Tommy Tuberville over Jeff Sessions in the primary I actually think that Tuberville is weaker politically. Democrats will have a lot of opposition research to do, but I doubt that anything will be enough to counter Alabama’s strong partisan lean.
2. South Carolina – Lindsey Graham- Graham’s opponent, Jaime Harrison, is the strongest candidate that the Democrats could have wished for (like Colorado and Montana). However, South Carolina is a ruby-red state (unlike its neighbors, Georgia and North Carolina.)
3. Kentucky- Mitch McConnell- Amy McGrath has been shown to be vulnerable- she barely beat a relatively unknown opponent (Charles Booker) in the primary. The only thing keeping this election from being safe is 1) the amount of money that McGrath has and 2) the horrible approval ratings McConnell has.
For the Democrats, we have:
1. Arizona– Mark Kelly- Mark is an amazing candidate, and Martha McSally is not. He has campaigned really effectively, and polls show that, with him routinely beating McSally by a 10-point or more margin.
For the Republicans, we have:
- Alaska- Dan Sullivan- polls (or really, only the Election Twitter- funded PPP poll) have shown a close race, but Independent/Democrat Al Gross has to gain a lot of recognition with undecideds.
- Texas- John Cornyn- this race will be closer at the presidential level than at the Senate, simply because MJ Hejar isn’t a great candidate. It will probably tighten, but Cornyn seems safer than Trump in TX.
- Georgia Special- TBD- this race is really unpredictable. Between Doug Collins, Kelly Loeffler, Matt Lieberman, and Raphael Warnock, there are a lot of candidates in the jungle primary. I think the winner will be Doug Collins, and the Democrats are at risk of locking themselves out of the runoff come January.
For the Democrats, we have:
- North Carolina– Cal Cunningham- Cal is a great candidate, and Thom Tillis is acting too right wing for the swing state that is NC. I think that this race will be one of the closest, but that Cal Cnningham will emerge as the victor (as polls say)
2. Montana– Steve Bullock- Bullock is the best candidate for the Democrats in MT. He’s done a good job with COVID-19, and he has raised a lot in a ver cheap state to advertise in. Also, he has Tester’s playbook already written out. The momentum is in favor of Bullock, and I don’t think that this will change. Chuck Schumer really got in luck with him as the candidate.
3. Maine– Sara Gideon- Susan Collins is the least liked senator. She needs to appeal to her base AND independents, which is virtually impossible now. I think this will be the closest race, but that Sara Gideon will prevail.
And finally, for the Republicans:
- Iowa- Joni Ernst– Ernst was viewed as the future of the Republican Party. Now, she’s in a very tight race against Theresa Greenfield. A Des Moines Register poll showed Greenfield winning, but Iowa is trending rapidly Republican. I think Ernst will win, but this rating will probably change next time.
2. Georgia- David Perdue– Jon Ossoff is a really good candidate, but I don’t think that he can beat Perdue at this moment. As the party coalesces around him after the primary, expect his donations to go up. David Perdue is a backbencher, and that won’t help him.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5W2AKM shows my predictions, with a 51-49 map map in favor of the Democrats.
Want to create your own map? Here’s how! https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/
Thanks for reading! What race interests you?
The Politics of the Pandemic
This pandemic has changed our world and these changes will last for a long time. As a result, its effects will last much more than the pandemic will last itself. Here is how I think our world will change. Here, I will talk about international relationships.
I think that this will mark the demise of the United States as the global superpower, because of the inefficiencies within our government. We love leaders with charisma and speeches, but most of the time, they prove to not handle times like this right. This results in inefficiency within the government, with the parties squabbling and willing to let other states sink. We are the United States, not the Separate States US not reacting quickly enough and as much as it needs to. Coupled up with our president’s press briefings- with a lot of “sarcasm”-, it looks like a circus.
This results in other countries taking the helm. Right now, it seems like Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, and Canada will help lead the world. They have all dealt with this crisis very well- with a focus on science professionals and believing them, and also apologizing for their mistakes. And yet, they still respect democratic norms while doing so. We are looking at a future where my age group will interact with these countries because of their work in this pandemic. They will lead in science and policy.
While these will lead, the PRC won’t. They do have great manufacturing prowess, but will not diplomatic-wise. They have covered up the deaths and infections of COVID-19, and most countries agree. How can you trust a country that doesn’t disclose the problems they face? Overall, I think that China won’t be as strong as predicted because of this.
Next, I will talk about local relationships within NYC and the United States
New Hampshire Democratic Primary Analysis
Author’s Note: I’m not going to write about the Iowa caucuses, because of the irregularities and the fact that the Associated Press has not announced their winner. However, based on current results, my prediction was a little off, starting with the fact that Buttigieg is projected to win more delegates than Sanders. Also, Biden at fifth place never happened- in Iowa-, so Klobuchar underperformed my expectations.
Hello everyone! This is my analysis of the New Hampshire primary, which happened this Tuesday. I will go through every candidate, from most over performing to under performing in the primary.
- Amy Klobuchar- Amy exceeded expectations and then exceeded some more. From a projected 12 percent to 20, Amy was definitely a winner. Multiple people at school have came up to me, asking who she is, and what she stands for If she becomes the nominee, New Hampshire may be the reason why. Furthermore, she cost Buttigieg the centrist vote, and Warren the college-educated women- who were expected to be a Warren bloc. Overall, great night for her. However winning in Nevada and South Carolina will be very hard for her, so she needs to gain support with minorities.
- Pete Buttigieg- After Iowa, many expected Pete to do well in New Hampshire. However, pulling to within two points of Sanders? Unthinkable until Tuesday night. If Amy hadn’t had a great night, Pete would have probably won. He needed to do good in NH, but has just as a tough road ahead of him as Klobuchar. Better than expected, but not by that much, is my take on Pete.
- Bernie Sanders- Bernie needed to win, and win he did. He would have probably liked a bigger lead, but the youth turnout wasn’t there for him. Probably the leader right now, and expect him to do relatively well in Nevada. In South Carolina? I’m not sure, but we’ll have a guide come the Nevada caucuses.
- Joe Biden- Joe said he was going to be really bad in Nh, but fifth? I’m not sure if the campaign even thought they could reach that low of a position. He didn’t really need to win NH, but this will hurt him a lot. Many Biden supporters are flocking to Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and now Klobuchar, and his main argument (electability!) doesn’t really work now. He needs to fight real hard to secure the nomination.
- Elizabeth Warren- Warren needed to poll in the top 3 to revive her campaign. Now, she’s taking a “unite the wings” approach, which hurt Booker, Harris, and Beto. She might look forward to winning in Nevada, which is a possibility. If she doesn’t do good in that state, she should drop out.
I’m sad that Yang will be leaving the campaign. He brought fresh, exciting ideas into the primary, and many people, at least in my school, liked him. I hope he runs for mayor of NYC in 2021. Losing Bennet and Patrick is also bad. None of them had ever really gotten traction, but I liked them both.
See you guys for the Nevada debate!
My Prediction -as of 10:00 P.M- for who will win the Iowa Democratic Caucuses
Hello All! Tonight is the big one, the Iowa caucuses! After seeing- and reading- multiple news sources, my prediction for the Iowa caucuses is as follows:
I think that Klobuchar will beat Biden because he has not been viable (gotten 15%) in multiple precincts, and Klobuchar has won those. However, I think the big winner tonight will be Buttigieg. He will be able to attract both Warren and Biden votes, so I think he will win or get second. This prediction will probably change, and I will address it in my analysis of the caucus tomorrow.
Key Takeaways from the January Democratic Debate
Here are my key takeaways from the January Democratic Primary Debate. With only 3 weeks left until Iowa, this was the last debate before voting starts. I waited to publish until today to add some things on Warren after the audio from the failed handshake was released, and the fact than CNN confirmed that the Warren campaign did tell them that Bernie told her that a woman could not run for president.
While some polls have showed that the public generally thinks that Warren had a good night, I think that it has the potential to be a devastating one. Here’s why: because of all the controversy of the past 3 days, Warren has burned a crucial bridge to the Bernie supporters, the progressive, new, left wing. However, she already burned her bridge with the moderates by always standing with Bernie, so now, she has no ideological side to pander to, except maybe for the percentage of voters that are caught between the two lanes, but the amount of them is pretty small.
Biden did not trip up like we saw him do in the earlier debates. I also thought that he was a bit more personal than before; helping him change the idea that the only place he’s been is Washington DC. I think that this debate will not impact his poll standings that much, because we are at the point where most people kind of know the main candidates.
I thought that Klobuchar did a pretty good job, but that she needs more than a “pretty good job” to do better. She was great at the December debate, but the polls didn’t show a great burst of support, although her campaign did raise 1 million dollars in the 24 hours after the debate. Her responses on health care and impeachment were pretty solid, but again, not enough to get her out of a distant fifth.
Buttigieg did very good last night, and definitely held his ground against Amy Klobuchar over the experience issue. However, I think that he might be caught in the same situation that Warren is in- he has bold, big plans for the Electoral College, etc. which many moderates don’t like, and positions on issues like the wealth tax and Medicare for All that doesn’t appeal to progressive voters. Nevertheless, he has been in this situation for quite some time, (remember when analysts thought the Warren-Buttigieg would make perfect sense?!) so I don’t think that this will affect him that much.
I finally think that Bernie did a pretty good job, just as he’s done since his heart attack in October, without making any big mistakes nor having great success. However, I think that this spat with Warren could boost him, and we’ll see if the polls show a Bernie increase. On a side note, Tom Steyer literally did nothing- except maybe prove he would be a good EPA Secretary? I would much rather see Andrew Yang or Mike Bloomberg up on the debate stage.
Please comment on what you thought of this debate!