PoliticsToday

Today I will be analyzing the two Senate races in Georgia: the regular one between David Perdue and Jon Ossoff, and the special election between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock. I’m looking at one of the most important aspects as we head into the final week of this race: turnout levels.

So far, this runoff has shattered records for turnout- even though Election Day is still a week away. In fact, as of today, around 3 million people have voted, which is comparable to the presidential election levels. This is crucial for Democrats because runoffs tend to be low-turnout, which disproportionally affects minorities and young voters. The fact that the turnout levels are similar to the November election is astonishing and proves that something is working with both party’s turnout levels, and also points at the importance of the election.

Looking more specifically, Democrats should have a lot of hope because of the demographic numbers. So far, 31% of the electorate is Black. This is even higher than the November election, when around 27% was. A 4% increase in the African-American electorate equals around 3% more support for Democrats, knowing the correlations among these voters. In such a close race, 3% will make or break the Democrats’ hopes. Furthermore, a disproportional number of Hispanics, Asians, and young people (18 to 29) who have voted in this election did not vote in November, at 5.9%, 6.3% and a whopping 9.7%, respectively.

Turnout is crucial in this election where, let’s face it, not many voters will switch their minds. Thus, if I were Democrats, I would be cautiously optimistic. These numbers are good for them, and, unless a massive amount of Republicans vote next Tuesday (and by massive it would have to be basically at a higher amount than November), they will have a slight advantage.

In politics, Labor Day is typically known as the start of the home stretch of the presidential campaign. Volunteering, donating, and campaigning go into full force.

It’s also a great benchmark to see how the race is going- after Labor Day, polls tend not to fluctuate as much as they do before it. Therefore, I thought it was a great opportunity to showcase my Presidential Forecast!

Some key notes from this map:

1. Montana, Missouri, Utah, Indiana, Alaska and South Carolina are Likely Republican: While some of these states (Missouri and Indiana specifically) might be controversial, I think that these are likely odds fro Trump. Polling has shown that Indiana’s 5th Congressional District is relatively close, and this is a very reliable Republican suburb that shouldn’t be even remotely competitive. Furthermore, in Missouri, Nicole Galloway is running a very strong candidacy for governor, which might help Biden. Out of these five, I think that Montana and Alaska are the states that would first go blue, but this would be in the case of a national landslide for Biden.
2. Texas as Tilt Republican: This one might be a surprise- Texas has rarely been anything but safe red since the Reagan years, but polling has shown a competitive race. Biden’s coalition of minorities and suburban voters in perfect for the realignment in Texas, where suburban voters almost gave the Democrats the Senate seat. Polls have shown Biden and Trump at a tie, and many people have noted that these polls have historically undercounted Hispanic and Latino support for Democrats- a great example for this is 2018. While I think that Trump still has a small advantage, Biden truly can win Texas.
3. Florida as Lean Democrat: While Florida has been a toss-up for 20 years, I think that it is lean Democrat at this moment. Biden is leading with older voters, which is practically unheard of for Democrats. As Florida has the highest concentration of seniors, this coalition of them, the Caribbean-American communities, and the suburban vote can only spell good news for the Democrats.
4. All the “key” states – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, are going Blue- Polls have shown that Biden has a double digit lead in Michigan, a high single-digit lead in Wisconsin, and a medium lead in Pennsylvania. This can only spell bad news for the Republicans. If they don’t start ads again (yes, they cancelled virtually all advertisements in Wisconsin and Michigan) they are in a horrible position come November.

So that’s my map! Any questions? Leave a comment and I’ll try to get back to you!

Last Friday, I did phonebanking for the Biden/Harris campaign in Wisconsin. Although there were a lot of “hangups”, or voters who hangup after you introduce yourself and why you are talking. (Generally, it’s something along the lines of, “Hi, is this [voter]? It’s [volunteer] with the [political group]. Are you supporting us?”), it went relatively smoothly thanks to the new “Autodialer” system. Basically, it calls a list of numbers by its own while you wait, and connects you once the person on the other line speaks. This results in calls being done much, much more quicker and being more efficient.

After approximately half of an hour of banking, I finally called an undecided voter. Early on, she mentioned that she was eighty-three years old, which I thought was very interesting. A teen talking to an eighty-three year old about politics seems like the punchline of a joke, but, I promise you, it was true.

We started to talk about how our generations had grown up in very different worlds, with mine having to battle all of the problems they and their children had caused. Somehow, this evolved into the polarization of Washington, and how they could not get anything done in terms of policy. I talked about the COVID relief bill, and how important it was to give more funding to the USPS during this pandemic. Later, we talked about the price of college and how Biden’s plan for higher education involved technical training as well as other education. We ended up talking for over half an hour, which is quite a lot of time in the phonebanking world.

This story is one of the many reasons I decided to phonebank- it allows real conversations with real people, whom I share very little with. I feel like I connected with that person, and that I made a difference- she ended up leaning towards supporting Democrats. It also shows that no matter the age gap, people tend to have the same critiques and thoughts on how to make our country better. I’m excited to continue to share more stories like this with you as the election draws nearer!

Welcome to PoliticsToday’s first live analysis! I’ll be updating this post with analysis and results from the down-ballot primaries in: Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, Arizona, and Washington. Let the night begin!

9:00 EST- All KS polls have closed! I predict that, for the Senate race, Roger Marshall will win against Kris Kobach, a setback for the Democrats. I do think, however, that the margin will be close.

Also, come by tomorrow to see the results! As the remaining states are mainly vote-by mail, don’t expect that these states will have results. Signing off until tomorrow!

8:00 EST- MI polls have now closed. Here are my predictions for the main primaries in this battleground state:

• MI 13- Rashida Tlalib will be able to fend off her challenger, Brenda Jones- albeit by a tight margain. Jones was the former congresswoman, and should be able to capture the black vote of the heavily minority-majority district.
• MI 03- This is Rep. Justin Amash’s district- this is his last term. Hillary Sholten will be running against a crowded Republican field. I predict that Peter Meijer will win this primary.

Missouri polls have also closed! I think that:

• The Medicaid expansion plan will pass.
• MO-01- Cori Bush will narrowly unseat Lacy Clay in this heavily Democratic district. Bush is a progressive Justice Democrat, and polling has shown a tight race. Due to the pandemic (and this being a primary) the most engaged, progressive voters will be the ones to vote today.

Whom will Joe Biden pick for his Vice Presidential nominee? I’ll go over whom I think he will choose, based on who’s least to most likely to get the nod of the candidates that have been talked about in the last month or so. These people have also been mentioned as being on the shortlist.

Least Likely- Tammy Duckworth.

While she is my favorite candidate, I don’t think that she will get the nomination. With her excellent credentials and backstory, she is inspiring and may be the candidate to best boost turnout in November. However, the need for a Black woman in this country is critical. While Duckworth is a woman of color, Democrats can’t take the Black woman base for granted.

Furthermore, she stated that it had been some weeks since she last spoke with Joe Biden, when asked about the VP vetting process. This late, it suggests that Duckworth will not get the nod.

Next, is Karen Bass. She has emerged as the real wildcard, with not a lot of people knowing who she is. She’s the chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus, being the representative of a Los Angeles district. She was also the Speaker of the California State Assembly. She is profoundly progressive, supporting Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and other progressive policies. Biden shouldn’t need to pander to the progressive wing, especially with the task-force recommendations. However, he does need to appeal to Kasich/Project Lincoln- type Republicans, which won’t like Bass. However, Chris Dodd, the former senator from Connecticut, is reportedly pushing for her nomination, according to an article by Politico.(@natashakorecki, @ccadelago, @MarcACaputo) . Again, she’s definitely the wildcard, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she gets the nomination.

Then, we have Susan Rice. She’s widely known for being Obama’s National Security Adviser and the US Ambassador for the United Nations. If Biden picks her, it signifies that he is focusing mainly on foreign policy, something that would be great. However, with the racial inequalities and COVID-19, it is very unlikely that foreign policy will take the driver’s seat. Furthermore, she’s not an experienced candidate, and it’s hard to see a Rice 2024 run. However, she has a very close relationship with many Washington officials, such as Obama, Susan Collins, and Biden himself.

Finally, the person who’s been the most likely pick for months now, is Kamala Harris. She’s been tested at the national level, is a smart politician, and represents the near future of the Democratic party. Even though she was tough on Biden during the early debates, she has shown that she will be a worthy pick. She’s well known and liked among Democratic voters, and has lately increased her progressive chops. Furthermore, Jim Clyburn, the man that saved the Biden campaign, said he supports Harris. She’s probably the candidate who checks the most boxes, which is why I think she’ll be the nominee.

Who do you think Biden will choose as his VP candidate?

This pandemic has changed our world and these changes will last for a long time. As a result, its effects will last much more than the pandemic will last itself. Here is how I think our world will change. Here, I will talk about international relationships.

I think that this will mark the demise of the United States as the global superpower, because of the inefficiencies within our government. We love leaders with charisma and speeches, but most of the time, they prove to not handle times like this right. This results in inefficiency within the government, with the parties squabbling and willing to let other states sink. We are the United States, not the Separate States US not reacting quickly enough and as much as it needs to. Coupled up with our president’s press briefings- with a lot of “sarcasm”-, it looks like a circus.

This results in other countries taking the helm. Right now, it seems like Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, and Canada will help lead the world. They have all dealt with this crisis very well- with a focus on science professionals and believing them, and also apologizing for their mistakes. And yet, they still respect democratic norms while doing so. We are looking at a future where my age group will interact with these countries because of their work in this pandemic. They will lead in science and policy.

While these will lead, the PRC won’t. They do have great manufacturing prowess, but will not diplomatic-wise. They have covered up the deaths and infections of COVID-19, and most countries agree. How can you trust a country that doesn’t disclose the problems they face? Overall, I think that China won’t be as strong as predicted because of this.

Next, I will talk about local relationships within NYC and the United States

Author’s Note: I’m not going to write about the Iowa caucuses, because of the irregularities and the fact that the Associated Press has not announced their winner. However, based on current results, my prediction was a little off, starting with the fact that Buttigieg is projected to win more delegates than Sanders. Also, Biden at fifth place never happened- in Iowa-, so Klobuchar underperformed my expectations.

Hello everyone! This is my analysis of the New Hampshire primary, which happened this Tuesday. I will go through every candidate, from most over performing to under performing in the primary.

1. Amy Klobuchar- Amy exceeded expectations and then exceeded some more. From a projected 12 percent to 20, Amy was definitely a winner. Multiple people at school have came up to me, asking who she is, and what she stands for If she becomes the nominee, New Hampshire may be the reason why. Furthermore, she cost Buttigieg the centrist vote, and Warren the college-educated women- who were expected to be a Warren bloc. Overall, great night for her. However winning in Nevada and South Carolina will be very hard for her, so she needs to gain support with minorities.
2. Pete Buttigieg- After Iowa, many expected Pete to do well in New Hampshire. However, pulling to within two points of Sanders? Unthinkable until Tuesday night. If Amy hadn’t had a great night, Pete would have probably won. He needed to do good in NH, but has just as a tough road ahead of him as Klobuchar. Better than expected, but not by that much, is my take on Pete.
3. Bernie Sanders- Bernie needed to win, and win he did. He would have probably liked a bigger lead, but the youth turnout wasn’t there for him. Probably the leader right now, and expect him to do relatively well in Nevada. In South Carolina? I’m not sure, but we’ll have a guide come the Nevada caucuses.
4. Joe Biden- Joe said he was going to be really bad in Nh, but fifth? I’m not sure if the campaign even thought they could reach that low of a position. He didn’t really need to win NH, but this will hurt him a lot. Many Biden supporters are flocking to Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and now Klobuchar, and his main argument (electability!) doesn’t really work now. He needs to fight real hard to secure the nomination.
5. Elizabeth Warren- Warren needed to poll in the top 3 to revive her campaign. Now, she’s taking a “unite the wings” approach, which hurt Booker, Harris, and Beto. She might look forward to winning in Nevada, which is a possibility. If she doesn’t do good in that state, she should drop out.

I’m sad that Yang will be leaving the campaign. He brought fresh, exciting ideas into the primary, and many people, at least in my school, liked him. I hope he runs for mayor of NYC in 2021. Losing Bennet and Patrick is also bad. None of them had ever really gotten traction, but I liked them both.

See you guys for the Nevada debate!

Hello All! Tonight is the big one, the Iowa caucuses! After seeing- and reading- multiple news sources, my prediction for the Iowa caucuses is as follows:
1. Sanders

2. Buttigieg

3. Warren

4. Klobuchar

5. Biden

I think that Klobuchar will beat Biden because he has not been viable (gotten 15%) in multiple precincts, and Klobuchar has won those. However, I think the big winner tonight will be Buttigieg. He will be able to attract both Warren and Biden votes, so I think he will win or get second. This prediction will probably change, and I will address it in my analysis of the caucus tomorrow.